{"id":110777,"date":"2025-04-30T10:28:22","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T09:28:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/helloproject.es\/vigilancia\/cual-es-la-probabilidad-de-un-apagon\/"},"modified":"2025-04-30T10:28:22","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T09:28:22","slug":"cual-es-la-probabilidad-de-un-apagon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/helloproject.es\/vigilancia\/cual-es-la-probabilidad-de-un-apagon\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1l es la probabilidad de un apag\u00f3n?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Debido a la alta demanda, el suministro de electricidad se ha ido tensionando por el aumento de la\u00a0urbanizaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n y\u00a0el\u00a0cambio clim\u00e1tico. Por esta raz\u00f3n, la probabilidad de cortes de electricidad aumenta.<\/p>\n

El suministro de electricidad se ha ido tensionando por el aumento de la urbanizaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n y el cambio clim\u00e1tico<\/p>\n

Para hacer predicciones sobre esta problem\u00e1tica, los cient\u00edficos utilizan datos de cortes de energ\u00eda para hacer predicciones probabil\u00edsticas lo m\u00e1s precisas posibles sobre cu\u00e1ndo y c\u00f3mo puede ocurrir.<\/p>\n

Boudewijn van Milligen, investigador del Centro de Investigaciones Energ\u00e9ticas, Medioambientales y Tecnol\u00f3gicas (CIEMAT), es coautor de un estudio, publicado en 2016 en la revista Chaos<\/a>, en el que se analizan los criterios para diagnosticar la probabilidad de sucesos extremos en el caso de la red el\u00e9ctrica.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl objetivo de nuestro estudio fue aplicar una t\u00e9cnica de an\u00e1lisis causal, conocida como \u2018entrop\u00eda de transferencia\u2019, a un modelo existente sobre la din\u00e1mica de las redes el\u00e9ctricas que se denomina OPA\u201d, apunta a SINC Van Milligen.<\/p>\n

El investigador duda que el apag\u00f3n del lunes en Espa\u00f1a fuese debido a una sobrecarga de la red, aunque sea local, \u201cporque no hab\u00eda ninguna circunstancia que har\u00eda pensar que ese fue el caso\u201d. \u201cPero habr\u00e1 que esperar a que el an\u00e1lisis de las causas se complete\u201d, a\u00f1ade.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Estado cercano al colapso<\/h2>\n

En el trabajo se dedujo que la causa de los apagones a gran escala es que a menudo las redes est\u00e1n en un estado muy cercano al colapso, y en esa situaci\u00f3n cualquier peque\u00f1a perturbaci\u00f3n puede llevar a un\u00a0fallo en cascada y un apag\u00f3n el\u00e9ctrico a gran escala.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Es como el famoso \u2018aleteo de una mariposa\u2019 de la teor\u00eda del caos. La causa no se encuentra en el \u2018aleteo\u2019, es decir, en un fallo espec\u00edfico, sino en el hecho de que el sistema, muy complejo, se encuentra en un estado muy cercano a la inestabilidad<\/p>\n

Boudewijn van Milligen, investigador del CIEMAT
\n<\/p>\n

\u201cEs como el famoso \u2018aleteo de una mariposa\u2019 de la teor\u00eda del caos. La causa no se encuentra en el \u2018aleteo\u2019, es decir, en un evento o fallo espec\u00edfico, sino en el hecho de que el sistema, muy complejo, se encuentra en un estado muy cercano a la inestabilidad\u201d, apunta van Milligen.<\/p>\n

El mensaje \u2018subliminal\u2019 tras este trabajo es que las redes el\u00e9ctricas deben ser sobredimensionadas para mantenerse alejadas de una posible inestabilidad. \u201cEvidentemente, ese consejo genera reparos debido al coste de la inversi\u00f3n necesaria, que las empresas responsables siempre quieren minimizar\u201d, indica el cient\u00edfico del CIEMAT.<\/p>\n

\u201cLos apagones se podr\u00e1n anticipar hasta cierto punto. En nuestro trabajo se da una pista clara al respecto, circunscrito al modelo OPA. Pero no hay que olvidar que se trata de un estudio estad\u00edstico, y la predicci\u00f3n que se obtiene no puede ser exacta, tal y como ocurre con fen\u00f3menos atmosf\u00e9ricos o terremotos\u201d, concluye.\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Debido a la alta demanda, el suministro de electricidad se ha ido tensionando por el aumento de la\u00a0urbanizaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n y\u00a0el\u00a0cambio clim\u00e1tico. Por esta raz\u00f3n, la probabilidad de cortes de electricidad aumenta. El suministro de electricidad se ha ido tensionando por el aumento de la urbanizaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-noticias"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfCu\u00e1l es la probabilidad de un apag\u00f3n? - bip4ex<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/helloproject.es\/vigilancia\/cual-es-la-probabilidad-de-un-apagon\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCu\u00e1l es la probabilidad de un apag\u00f3n?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Debido a la alta demanda, el suministro de electricidad se ha ido tensionando por el aumento de la\u00a0urbanizaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n y\u00a0el\u00a0cambio clim\u00e1tico. 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